3AC-2022

Three Arrows Capital failure

Counterparty / prime-brokerage style risk.

RESEARCH · SIMULATION · NOT INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE · NOT INVESTABLE · £0 REAL CAPITAL · PAPER

HINDSIGHT BARRIER — No information published after this simulated timestamp may influence this decision.

Occurred (recorded): 27 JUN 2022 02:00 SAST

First public evidence (recorded): 15 JUN 2022 02:00 SAST

Verification: CORROBORATED

Split: VALIDATION

Forced selling and credit freeze.

What was known — evidence timeline

Published	Source type	Verification	Summary
15 JUN 2022 02:00 SAST	SECONDARY_REPORTING	CORROBORATED	Public reporting of liquidation and default progressed through June 2022.

Sources

Three Arrows Capital — Wikipedia · SECONDARY_REPORTING

T-minus (deterministic rules, all four models share the evidence gate)

T	Barrier	Known items	State	Action
T-180	29 DEC 2021 02:00 SAST	0	INSUFFICIENT_DATA	NO_ACTION
T-90	29 MAR 2022 02:00 SAST	0	INSUFFICIENT_DATA	NO_ACTION
T-30	28 MAY 2022 02:00 SAST	0	INSUFFICIENT_DATA	NO_ACTION
T-7	20 JUN 2022 02:00 SAST	1	WATCH	WATCH
T-1	26 JUN 2022 02:00 SAST	1	WATCH	WATCH
T0	27 JUN 2022 02:00 SAST	1	WATCH	WATCH

Price-only drawdowns remain NO_ACTION. Structural corroborated events may reach WATCH/ISOLATE. This is not a claim that Duplios operated a live desk at the time.