BITFINEX-2016

Bitfinex hack

Venue custody.

RESEARCH · SIMULATION · NOT INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE · NOT INVESTABLE · £0 REAL CAPITAL · PAPER

HINDSIGHT BARRIER — No information published after this simulated timestamp may influence this decision.

Occurred (recorded): 02 AUG 2016 02:00 SAST

First public evidence (recorded): 02 AUG 2016 02:00 SAST

Verification: CORROBORATED

Split: VALIDATION

BTC price decline; exchange haircut on users.

What was known — evidence timeline

Published	Source type	Verification	Summary
02 AUG 2016 02:00 SAST	SECONDARY_REPORTING	CORROBORATED	Bitfinex reported a security breach and loss of bitcoin.

Sources

Bitfinex hack — Wikipedia · SECONDARY_REPORTING

T-minus (deterministic rules, all four models share the evidence gate)

T	Barrier	Known items	State	Action
T-180	04 FEB 2016 02:00 SAST	0	INSUFFICIENT_DATA	NO_ACTION
T-90	04 MAY 2016 02:00 SAST	0	INSUFFICIENT_DATA	NO_ACTION
T-30	03 JUL 2016 02:00 SAST	0	INSUFFICIENT_DATA	NO_ACTION
T-7	26 JUL 2016 02:00 SAST	0	INSUFFICIENT_DATA	NO_ACTION
T-1	01 AUG 2016 02:00 SAST	0	INSUFFICIENT_DATA	NO_ACTION
T0	02 AUG 2016 02:00 SAST	1	WATCH	WATCH

Price-only drawdowns remain NO_ACTION. Structural corroborated events may reach WATCH/ISOLATE. This is not a claim that Duplios operated a live desk at the time.