BTC-2018-DRAWDOWN

Bitcoin 2018 bear drawdown

Healthy-asset control: network continued. Price volatility alone is not failure.

RESEARCH · SIMULATION · NOT INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE · NOT INVESTABLE · £0 REAL CAPITAL · PAPER

HINDSIGHT BARRIER — No information published after this simulated timestamp may influence this decision.

Occurred (recorded): 15 DEC 2018 02:00 SAST

First public evidence (recorded): 15 DEC 2018 02:00 SAST

Verification: CORROBORATED

Split: VALIDATION

Large peak-to-trough decline from 2017 highs.

Control group. Must not produce isolation from price alone.

What was known — evidence timeline

No sourced evidence rows attached.

Sources

History of bitcoin — Wikipedia · SECONDARY_REPORTING

T-minus (deterministic rules, all four models share the evidence gate)

T	Barrier	State	Action
T-180	18 JUN 2018 02:00 SAST	NOT_ASSESSED	NO_ACTION
T-90	16 SEP 2018 02:00 SAST	NOT_ASSESSED	NO_ACTION
T-30	15 NOV 2018 02:00 SAST	NOT_ASSESSED	NO_ACTION
T-7	08 DEC 2018 02:00 SAST	NOT_ASSESSED	NO_ACTION
T-1	14 DEC 2018 02:00 SAST	NOT_ASSESSED	NO_ACTION
T0	15 DEC 2018 02:00 SAST	NOT_ASSESSED	NO_ACTION

Price-only drawdowns remain NO_ACTION. Structural corroborated events may reach WATCH/ISOLATE. This is not a claim that Duplios operated a live desk at the time.