Historical replay

What could have been known at the time

Historical replay is not live performance. The engine may not use information published after the simulated timestamp.

RESEARCH · SIMULATION · NOT INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE · NOT INVESTABLE · £0 REAL CAPITAL · PAPER

HINDSIGHT BARRIER — No information published after this simulated timestamp may influence this decision.

Development-set events influenced rule design and are not independent validation. Holdout events are catalogued separately.

When	Event	Category	Verification	Split
24 FEB 2014 02:00 SAST	Mt. Gox insolvency	EXCHANGE_INSOLVENCY	CORROBORATED	DEVELOPMENT
17 JUN 2016 02:00 SAST	The DAO exploit	EXPLOIT	CORROBORATED	DEVELOPMENT
02 AUG 2016 02:00 SAST	Bitfinex hack	EXCHANGE_INSOLVENCY	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
15 DEC 2018 02:00 SAST	Bitcoin 2018 bear drawdown	PRICE_DRAWDOWN	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
12 MAR 2020 02:00 SAST	March 2020 COVID crypto crash	PRICE_DRAWDOWN	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
02 FEB 2022 02:00 SAST	Wormhole bridge exploit	BRIDGE_FAILURE	CORROBORATED	HOLDOUT
23 MAR 2022 02:00 SAST	Ronin bridge exploit	BRIDGE_FAILURE	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
09 MAY 2022 02:00 SAST	Terra / UST / LUNA collapse	DEPEG	CORROBORATED	DEVELOPMENT
12 JUN 2022 02:00 SAST	Celsius withdrawal halt	WITHDRAWAL_HALT	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
27 JUN 2022 02:00 SAST	Three Arrows Capital failure	INSOLVENCY	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
05 JUL 2022 02:00 SAST	Voyager bankruptcy	INSOLVENCY	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
01 AUG 2022 02:00 SAST	Nomad bridge exploit	BRIDGE_FAILURE	CORROBORATED	HOLDOUT
11 NOV 2022 02:00 SAST	FTX / FTT collapse	EXCHANGE_INSOLVENCY	CORROBORATED	DEVELOPMENT
28 NOV 2022 02:00 SAST	BlockFi bankruptcy	INSOLVENCY	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
11 MAR 2023 02:00 SAST	USDC / Silicon Valley Bank	DEPEG	CORROBORATED	VALIDATION
14 JUL 2023 02:00 SAST	Multichain incident	BRIDGE_FAILURE	CORROBORATED	HOLDOUT
21 FEB 2025 02:00 SAST	Bybit 2025 incident	CUSTODY_EVENT	CORROBORATED	HOLDOUT